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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and seize its president – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may live to repent if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.