Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
